IreneB.Taeubern/an/an/an/a
Population Policies in Communist China1
On November 1, 1954, the State Statistics Administration of the
Ministry of Internal Affairs of the People’s Republic of China announced
the results of a census—registration taken in major part as of
midnight on June 30, 1953. The total population was reported as 602
million. Deleting the 7.6 million Chinese accepted as the population of
Taiwan and the 11.7 million other Chinese outside the Mainland left the
population of the Mainland as 583 million.… There was also an official
statement that a survey of more than 30 million people showed a birth rate
of 37 per 1,000 total population, a death rate of 17, and hence a rate of
natural increase of 20. If these results are valid, a rate of natural
increase of two per cent per year is producing annual increases amounting
to more than 12 million.
The initial public reaction to the fact—or belief—that the
numbers of the Chinese exceeded 600 million was one of jubilation. There
was the ancient identification of numbers with the power of the state,
the anticipation of greater power as numbers became greater, pride in China
and the Chinese as the most populated of the world’s lands and the most
numerous of its peoples, derision of the skeptics who believed China
weakened by its numbers. Pai Chien-hua of the Census Department of the
Ministry of Internal Affairs acclaimed the 600 million as the "great force
for Socialist reconstruction … the most precious of all the categories of
capital,"and ridiculed "the bourgeois economists who cling to
bankrupt Malthusian theories of population." China, he said, was a country
with vast amounts of virgin
land and unexplored natural resources where rates of growth in
production far exceeded rates of population increase.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE POSITION
The propaganda against Neo-Malthusian imperialists and the omnipresent
promises of a forthcoming millennium under the Communist order have been
new and verbal aspects of the post-revolutionary period.…
One can only speculate as to what happened when the bureaucracy in
Peking became immersed in the arithmetic of an overall five-year plan, a
twelve-year plan for the development of agriculture, and plans of
unspecified durations to educate all children and to extend the beneficent
facilities of the state to all mothers. If the rate of growth were really
two per cent per year and the count of 583 million for the Mainland
population as of June 30, 1953, were accurate, the population would have
increased to about 625 million by the end of 1956. There may be
considerable debate concerning the population capacity of China under
conditions of maximum utilization of modern scientific knowledge. There can
be little doubt that rates of natural increase of two to three per cent per
year would retard the speed of any concurrent drives for industrialization,
for advancing consumption levels, and for raising educational
standards.
The population problem faced by Mainland China was similar to that in
other Asian countries except that the magnitude was greater and the sense
of urgency was stronger. Modernization that included economic development
and health activities brought decreases in death rates but left birth rates
relatively unaffected. Increasing rates of population growth brought social
and economic problems that seemed to have no direct solutions. There was no
way whereby birth rates could be reduced quickly and easily to correspond
to the lowered death rates. The elimination of growth through deliberate
raising of death rates was neither culturally nor politically feasible. The
desires of the people for health and life were tremendous; reductions in
the crusades to swat flies, kill mosquitoes, eliminate filth, and secure
insecticides and antibiotics could not even be considered.
The problem of increasing population had no easy solution, but it was
one that could not be evaded. All the sons of the peasants could not be
absorbed efficiently in agriculture. Internal developments could provide
opportunities for some of them, but continuing absorption of a natural
increase such as that to be anticipated in a modernizing China would
involve serious difficulties.… The accumulation of people in the
villages was not a feasible solution to the problem, for the country needed
surplus food from the rural areas to feed the proliferating urban and
industrial populations. Moreover, food and agricultural commodities were
needed for export in exchange for the materials and products essential to
economic development.
… Actions taken between the fall of 1954 and the present
indicate substantial movement toward a decision to use the propaganda
facilities and the administrative organization of the government to
encourage urban and village dwellers alike to practice family limitation.
Description and evaluation of the events that have already occurred and of
the prospects for future pronouncements and activities are difficult.…
The correspondence between directives from Peking and events in the peasant
society can be judged only on the basis of the statements of
journalists.…
The processes whereby the need for family limitation was accepted in
theory and adopted as government policy should be noted in summary form
prior to a
somewhat more detailed consideration of the arguments in the propaganda,
the question of means, and the procedures of implementation.
The hazardous transition from the orthodox Marxian position against
"overpopulation" to concern over the burdens of bearing and rearing
children was made without jeopardy to the central party organization or the
publicized personalities of the regime. The main spokesman on the subject
of birth control seems to have ben Shao Li-tzu, a deputy to the National
People’s Congress but a late convert from the old regime. He spoke first to
the People’s Congress on September 18, 1954. Speculation as to the
significance of his cautious statement was ended early in 1955 when people
of unquestioned stature in the Party wrote in the official publications
of various organizations. For instance, an article on the approach to the
problem of birth control appeared in Hsin Chung-kuo fu-nü [New
China’s Woman], the journal of the All China Federation of Democratic
Women. Chou Ngo-feng, a gynecologist, described the techniques of
contraception in Chung-kuo ch’ing-nien [China Youth], the organ of
the Communist Youth League. Major theorists defined the problem and
divorced the concept of birth control from that of Neo-Malthusianism. A
legal basis was prepared that permitted not only contraception but also
abortion and sterilization.… An intensive campaign to extend knowledge
and practice was ordered by the Minister of Health in early August of this
year.
It is difficult to summarize the steps whereby the government of
Mainland China accepted the extension of planned parenthood as one of its
legitimate functions. There was no population commission, and there is no
statement of government policy as such. The movement toward action has
been cautious and circuitous. The first public statement, already noted,
that of Deputy Shao Li-tzu to the National People’s Congress on September
18, 1954, was much in the tradition of the past: China had great areas but
there were calamities of a localized nature. Needs for development were
great and the people were backward. An over-large population presented many
problems. The difficulty stressed was that of building schools rapidly
enough to keep up with the increasing numbers of children reaching school
age each year. There were references to the sufferings of mothers with too
many children; and denials of Neo-Malthusianism were coupled with
references to Lenin. However, the argument proceeded from the national ills
to the prescription of birth limitation for families.
The statement of a position that was pure from the standpoint of the
Party had to resolve substantial ideological conflicts. The ancient
problems of the rice lands presented few difficulties, for the survival of
these man-land maladjustments under a socialist organization could be
blamed on the iniquities of the old exploitative order. The new problems of
the relations between economic development, public health, and rapid
population increase were more difficult, for each of these individually
was a vaunted goal of the new regime. The solution lay in repudiating
Neo-Malthusianism and the economic arguments as to the retarding effects of
high rates of growth but accepting birth limitation for personal, family,
and party reasons.
The broad position that retains Marx, repudiates Malthus, hurls
invectives at Neo-Malthusians, and advocates the limitation of births was
presented by Yang Ssu-ying in Hsüeh-hsi [Study] on October 2,
1955. Here, in the party’s major journal for ideological studies, there has
been no overt ideological compromise. Indeed, "the Malthusian theory of
population is the most reactionary among the theories of the social
sciences in capitalist society." There is no absolute overpopulation
and there are no general demographic-economic laws. Instead,
resting on page 796 of Vol. 1 of Marx’s Capital as issued by the
People’s Publishing Press in 1953, Yang Ssu-ying states that "each special
form of productive society has a special set of laws applicable to it." The
relative population surpluses of the capitalist system were due to the
operation of the principle of wealth accumulation in the capitalist
society. Under capitalism, there is "a continual increase in the ranks of
the proletariat … the supply of labor power surpassing the average needs
for labor power on the part of the capitalist." Under the law of socialism,
there is a "continuous and rapid increase in population accompanied,
however, by a relatively higher standard of material well-being of the
populace and by diminishing sickness and mortality rates with
simultaneously a full and more rational utilization of employment of people
possessing labor power."
Then the theoretical hurdle from anti-Malthusianism to birth control is
taken with a jibe:
There are some people who having come across articles on methods of
birth control in newspapers and magazines in our country are inclined
gleefully to say, "Look! The Communists too need Malthus no less than
they need Marx."
The crux of the arguments with reference to family limitation merits
quotation:
In giving publicity to notes on methods of birth control our newspapers
and magazines had not been inspired by the belief that we were
overpopulated. On the contrary, they did so having in mind that our country
had been at one time a colonial or semi-colonial country and one that was
semi-feudalistic and under imperialist rule so that economically, socially,
culturally, and in regard to general welfare facilities we have been rather
backward.… Viewed from the standpoint of individual families, the fact
that there are too many children in a family unduly increases the
burden of the parents and affects adversely their work, their study of
political doctrines, and their general livelihood. Similarly the children’s
education may be profoundly affected. In view of the above, in order to
lessen the difficulties currently facing us, to protect the health of
maternity womanhood and finally to ensure that the next generation may be
brought up better, we are not at all opposed to birth control. At the same
time the publicity given by certain newspapers and magazines to methods of
birth control is also necessary as well as proper. This has no point in
common with Malthus’ theory at all.…
The conclusion reverts to the campaign against Neo-Malthusianism. Since,
it is argued, the circulation of the theory only serves the forces of
reaction, "… we should, with firm resolve, refute and continue
unceasingly to expose the deceptive nature of this reactionary and
fallacious doctrine."
There is substantial evidence that the unbounded optimism of old and the
undiluted orthodoxy of the Marxian thesis survive alongside the new duality
in demographic argument. Chen Po-ta, one of the theorists of the Party,
stated this position in a report submitted to the February 2, 1956, session
of the Second Plenary Session of the Chinese People’s Political
Consultative Conference:
There are still some people in China who believe the preposterous
"theory of overpopulation" of Malthus. The collapse of the so-called law
of diminishing returns of the fertility of soil is … a proof of the
nonsense of the Malthusian population theory.… There is no sign of
overpopulation in China. The truth is that China’s agricultural productive
power was seriously damaged by the reactionary rule of foreign
imperialists, feudal landlords, and the Kuomintang before China was
liberated.… Of course we do not deny the importance of the food
question to our work of Socialist construction. The way to solve this
question is to change agriculture from the system of individual economy to
the system of cooperation.…
The proof of the nonexistence of a real population problem is held to
lie in the target for grain production required by the National Program for
Agriculture. The plan requires a doubling of grain output in twelve years.
Thus, according to Chen Po-ta, "China can provide room for at least another
600 million people. Twelve years later, there will certainly be still
greater developments in agriculture."
THE ARGUMENT OF THE PROPAGANDA
Marxian orthodoxy with its refusal to admit overpopulation, surplus
population, the pressure of population on resources, or demographic
deterrents to capital formation bars many of the arguments for birth
control that have been prevalent in the West and in Japan. No appeals for
consideration of the fate of the national economy are permissible. There
are other differences. In a socialist state where agriculturalists are
being moved into cooperatives, fears for old age and desires for children
as social security cannot be regarded as forces buoying an overabundant
fertility. Health and other family and personal reasons for family
limitation remain, together with the duty of the individual to serve the
society and the responsibilities of parents for the development of
children.
The most concise statement of the basic motif in the birth control
propaganda of Mainland China was given in the introduction of the subject
to the All China Federation of Democratic Women:
Birth control is to regulate the spacing of childbirth by means of
contraceptive methods. It is aimed to protect the health of the mothers and
children, so that women can be bodily strong to better serve the cause of
Socialist construction and to give full attention and good education to the
new generation.
The elaboration of the relationship of maternity to health considers a
variety of factors that are similar to the listings of the woes of the poor
in the early social surveys of Western countries. In the advice to
Communist youth, it is stated that:
… production cannot be brought to a high level at one stroke, and the
life of the people cannot be improved speedily on a large scale. During the
course of the past several years, the State has paid great attention to the
founding of undertakings to look after the welfare of the children and to
take care of the health of the women and infants. But this has not
completely solved the difficulties encountered by the parents. In some
cases the children are not properly developed in embryo due to the
ill-health of their mothers, and are born unhealthy or dead. In some cases,
because of the bad financial condition and lack of energy of their parents,
some children are not nurtured properly. It is particularly true with the
young couples who are still in the course of growing up. They need time to
learn and their financial capacity is far from sound. To them, the birth of
too many children would mean great hardship.
Positive elements predominate in the health arguments, despite the use
of tales of over-frequent childbearing, fatigued mothers, stillborn
infants, and sickly children. Health is not for its own sake but to
permit the mothers to continue their studies or to work for the realization
of the new order.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
In the statements on birth control in the party journals, major emphasis
is placed on the individual nature of the decision concerning limitation
practices. It is the duty of the state, and particularly the medical
doctors and the health services, to give information, advice, and guidance
to those seeking it. In the writing of the leaders and the theorists,
people should be educated concerning the nature and availability of
limitation practices, but there should be no coercion.
There are other but less frequent motifs in the fragments of literature
that are available. The happiness of married couples is mentioned
occasionally. The advocacy of late marriage as a means of limiting
fertility is regarded as a trick of the Malthusians; its pernicious effects
are said to be obvious. A wide knowledge of birth control, it is held,
would permit student marriages, continued study, and progressively greater
contributions of individuals to their society.
There are also answers to the common fears of people concerning birth
control. Education for contraception will prevent the tragic consequence of
the resort to nonmedical abortions. It is recognized that some "demoralized
and decadent survivors" of the old regime may use contraceptives in a life
of laxity. This, it appears, is neither a problem for the doctors nor a
blot on the banners of limited but planned parenthood.…
THE QUESTION OF MEANS
The reduction of fertility can proceed through a variety of means.
Institutions or adjustments that keep major classes of a population
celibate obviously reduce the proportionate childbearing of the total
population. Late age at marriage and deterrents to, or taboos on,
remarriage reduce the years of childbearing and so reduce total fertility.
Severe malnutrition, debilitating disease, and other factors may lesson
rates of conception and decrease the proportion of conceptions carried
through to the delivery of a viable infant. Planned actions of individuals
may permit coitus without conception, eliminate the foetus prior to
independent viability, or destroy the newly born. Many of the factors in
the cultural milieu, the social institutions, and the levels of
physiological functioning are subject to governmental manipulation and
hence may be parts of population policies; but they are not included in the
practices referred to as "birth control." That term is limited to the
deliberate actions of individuals, those actions having as a consequence
the reduction in the numbers of births.
The term "birth control" itself has no internationally accepted meaning
other than that implicit in the words themselves. In many cultures it is a
generic term that includes contraception (the prevention of conception) and
abortion (the elimination of the product of conception). It may or may not
include that gamut of practices whose consequence is the death of the
infant at or soon after birth. These practices include direct infanticide;
exposure, desertion, or other action where death is probable but not
inevitable; gross neglect in the period soon after birth; and a generally
lessened level of care so that survival becomes less probable.
In Mainland China the problems of terminology and propriety are alike
great. Again and again the reference phrase is "birth control and
contraception" rather than either used alone. The Chinese language permits
a distinction between birth control as a generic term including
contraception, abortion, and sterilization, and contraception as the
prevention of conception. As in Japan, however, the distinctions tend to
be ones of means without sharp ethical or religious connotations. And,
again as in Japan, common usage is likely to involve a generic and quite
non-specific interpretation.
The discussions of birth control in the party journals and the press are
so written that the uninitiated reader is likely to make a facile
identification of birth control with contraception. The discussions of
birth control as a contribution of modern science refer specifically to
contraception. The advice to Communist youth on birth control includes all
the standard techniques of modern contraception.
Abortion is cited as a harmful practice, a carry-over from the old
regime, an evil that will be eradicated as medical doctors with their
knowledge of scientific means of contraception replace the untrained and
uneducated operators in the field. There is little consideration of
infanticide or infant neglect.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The regulations of the Ministry of Health with reference to abortion are
cast in medical and health terms, though with references to the
requirements of work and study. As early as 1954 abortion was permitted
"… where continued pregnancy is considered medically undesirable, where
the spacing of children is already too close, and where a mother with her
baby only four months old has become pregnant again and experiences
difficulties in breast feeding." At this time, the performance of the
operation required the joint application of husband and wife, medical
certification, and the approval of the party organization to which the
couple belonged. The removal of these latter provisions for certification
of need would make the legal situation in Mainland China quite comparable
to that in Japan after the spring of 1952 when a similar requirement for
certification was removed from the law. It is highly significant,
therefore, that when Vice-Minister of Health Fu Lien-chang was questioned
by a China Youth correspondent, he stated that it was necessary to
ease the restrictions on induced abortions and expressed the hope that
"health agencies and medical personnel in all areas will consider the
requests and the difficulties of those who apply, and appropriately ease
the restrictions when deliberating approval for induced abortions." The
Vice-Minister added that his remarks should not be construed as approval of
abortion under all circumstances, and that contraception was "the best way
of birth control."
The interplay of the familial values of the old society and the economic
imperatives of the new emerge in clear focus in the discussions of
sterilization and its role in the reduction of family size. Initially
sterilization was repudiated as inconsistent with the culture of China;
it was argued that Chinese with their love of children and their veneration
of family continuity would never accept the permanent elimination of the
possibility of having children. Then sterilization began to be mentioned as
a means of contraception whose unique advantage was its permanence.
Finally there was advocacy of sterilization as the most feasible means of
limiting fertility. Sterilization of the male requires a single simple
operation. It thus eliminates the continuing burdens on medical personnel
implicit in a widespread resort to abortions. Moreover, it solves the
serious problem of a use of sparse imported materials for other than
industrial purposes which is implicit in a nationwide use of
contraceptives. It is also held that sterilizations performed by modern
techniques would lessen the pressures placed on hospitals and health
services by the high rates of childbearing that now exist.
The limitations placed on sterilization operations by the Ministry of
Health are being reduced gradually, although they remain substantial.
Sterilization was restricted initially to those having more than six
children, then to those having four or more. Regardless of the number of
children, though, the operation is limited to families in which the woman
is over 30 years of age, in bad health, economically poor, and actively
engaged in study.
IMPLEMENTATION
The preparations of theoretical positions and the issuance of laws and
regulations are intellectual activities that can be pursued at a distance
from the realities
of life and death throughout the vast areas of the country. As has been
noted earlier, the verbal basis for population policy in Communist China
achieved a rather high level of sophistication. The discussions of the
acceptability of family limitation and of the means of achieving it,
however, are so naive as to suggest that those demographers and public
health doctors who were concerned with the problem in the last quarter
century of the Nationalist regime are not influential in the councils of
the Communists. In the spring of 1955 deputies of the National People’s
Congress who made inspection trips to the villages discovered that rural
women did not know of contraception but did think that they had too many
children. The conclusion from this was simple; all that was needed to
produce major reductions in fertility was the spread of knowledge on modern
contraception and the provision of supplies.
The problem of means is receiving serious attention; the Minister of
Health is reported to be collecting the sacred formulae of the herbalists
as a part of research on formulae for contraceptives. The reports and the
discussions are curious combinations of modern science and ancient lore.
The following formula of advance-herbalist Yeh Hsi-chun, Deputy of the
National People’s Congress, was presented seriously:
Fresh tadpoles coming out in the spring should be washed clean in cold
well water, and swallowed whole three or four days after menstruation. If a
woman swallows fourteen live tadpoles on the first day and ten more on the
following day, she will not conceive for five years. If contraception is
still required after that, she can repeat the formula twice, and be forever
sterile.… This formula is good in that it is effective, safe, and not
expensive. The defect is that it can be used only in the spring.
The action program of the government has lagged considerably behind its
stated position. In July of 1954 the Minister of Health submitted
regulations concerning birth control to the Government Administrative
Council for approval, but reports in the following months indicate that
there were delays in action programs. In 1955 the National People’s
Congress forwarded a proposal for intensive effort to the Minister of
Health. In June, 1956, it was announced that a report on birth control had
been issued. Then on June 19, Li Te-ch’uan, the Minister of Health,
reported directly on her delinquencies to the National People’s
Congress:
We have failed to adequately popularize birth control which may be
beneficial to the health of mothers and children, to the education program
for children, and to the prosperity of our nation. From now on, we must
develop our work concerning publicity and education and strengthen our work
of providing technical leaders.
Various activities seem to have been undertaken in the period from 1954
to early 1956, however inadequate they may have been. It was reported that
contraceptive supplies were on sale at the stores of the
government-managed China Medical Company. Educational activities were
reported as beginning, the party groups and the cooperative organizations
being the channels of communication.
Suspicion that the magnitude of the
campaign was limited was implicit in Li Te-ch’uan’s statement to the
National People’s Congress on June 19. On August 14, a Radio Peking
broadcast carried the announcement that on August 6 the Minister of Health
had directed all health offices to push a campaign to spread information
about birth control techniques. The campaign will involve the use of
publicity posters, special provisions for a wide distribution of supplies,
and an
educational campaign that will move from doctors through women’s
organizations, labor groups, and associations of teachers.
THE BROADER FRAMEWORK
Viewed in the broader perspective of total population policy, the
crusade for family limitation appears peripheral to the main goals of the
Communists. Industrialization is regarded as the major solution to
problems of population and poverty, but the extension of land cultivation
and food production is an essential part of the economic developments now
in process or contemplated.… The eastern central provinces have very high
densities; the northern and western peripheral areas are sparsely settled.
The obvious policy implications have been drawn. The densely settled
provinces should be sources for the manpower needed to develop the economy
and insure the strategic security of the border areas. The Economic
Planning Commission has been assigned the task of moving millions of people
to resettlement projects that extend from Sinkiang around to the far
north.
There are also tremendous drives behind some of the social campaigns.
The Marriage Law of 1950 and the subsequent activities designed to
eliminate the feudal aspects of family relations are direct assaults on the
family system and the ancient role of women. In so far as they penetrate
the populations in the rural areas they will transform the bases for family
life and reproduction from unquestioned acceptance of the traditional
ways to rational striving for individual survival and advancement in the
service of the state and its ideals.
It remains to be seen whether the assault on high fertility will achieve
a momentum comparable to that of the development and reform programs whose
ideological positions are centered firmly in Communist thinking and Chinese
national aspirations. It should be noted, furthermore, that genuinely
intensive drives for the reduction of births would involve critical choices
in the use of sparse personnel and resources. Doctors, other health
personnel, and health facilities are too few for the health programs now in
process. Work in family planning would have to compete with work in the
control of tuberculosis, malaria, and the infectious diseases. If the
difficulties involved in population increase were less great, there would
have to be considerable skepticism as to whether the Communist leaders
would choose to slow the speed of their industrialization and to lessen the
intensity of their health campaigns in order to achieve substantial
reductions in fertility. Given the present situation, and the realization
on the part of the central government of that situation, rational
considerations would indicate that priority be given to the reduction of
fertility.…
The emphasis in the previous discussions has been placed on the question
as to whether or not Communist China would wage a really intensive and
adequately supported campaign to reduce fertility through all classes of
the population, and particularly in the rural areas. If such a campaign
should be waged, there is the further question of its effectiveness. There
is no historical precedent for the answer to this question, for no country
has waged such a campaign at the beginning of its drive for economic and
social transformation. The influence of the legalization of abortions in
the Soviet Union at an earlier period was largely an urban phenomenon;
Japan’s precipitant drop in fertility came after a century of forced
economic development, and it came after national fertility had been
declining slowly for perhaps three-quarters of a century.
If an intensive campaign for family limitation had come within the
context of
the traditional rural society, all the experience of China itself and of
other countries in and outside Asia would have indicated a high degree of
skepticism as to the possibility either of swift changes in family values
or of a rapid acceptance of rational planning of family size. The situation
today is not so predictable. Mainland China has a society in revolution.
The new order combines the police state and the terror with a driving
ideology that is at once political, economic, and social. Vast physical
dislocations are occurring alongside changes in the organization of
agriculture, redefinitions of the role of women, and major assaults on the
Confucian relationships. For some eight years now youth have been
subjected to the activities, the indoctrinations, and the controls of a
Communist regime. The party organization and its correlated group
associations provide channels for contact and influence at the family
level even in the remote villages. If the drive to reduce fertility should
be intensive and conformity to a small family pattern should be made an
objective manifestation of party orthodoxy, there could be powerful
pressures on women to avoid additional pregnancies or, if they occurred, to
terminate them in abortion.
The future course of the population of Mainland China has become even
more of an enigma than its present size and rates of growth. It is possible
to discuss the limits within which the future course of that population
must lie if one accepts the initial assumption that the Communist state
maintains its political control and succeeds in achieving a rate of
economic advance somewhat more rapid than its rate of population growth.
Given the continuation of health activities in the modern setting, it is
not conceivable to the student of population that birth rates could be
dropped to the relatively lower levels of the death rates except over a
considerable period of time. There are high probabilities that health
campaigns to reduce deaths will achieve far greater initial success than
campaigns to reduce births, and hence that rates of population growth will
increase. This conclusion would remain, whatever the intensity of the
present campaigns or of those that may be initiated in the near future. In
other words, in the absence of economic collapse, the population will grow
much larger than it is at present. The question concerns the amount of the
growth, not the fact of growth. If economic development continues as
assumed, birth rates will begin to decline in the industrializing areas and
among the more educated groups of the population, but that decline will be
slow. In the modern world, an increase of one to two per cent per year is
not a high rate of population growth. The actual rate may go above three
per cent in Mainland China, as it has in less populous countries elsewhere.
A many-fold increase in total population is implicit in the Chinese
economic-demographic situation—if the economy can support the population
that it generates.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1 From ,
1956, 22:261–274. By permission.